Willie's Record

Every pick Willie makes is graded against the line. Nothing is deleted, nothing is edited, and the losses are right next to the wins. Willie doesn't own an eraser.

Past results don't predict future ones. A good record over a short stretch can be luck. Treat this as a track record, not a promise.

Picks to win, 2026 season

44-2861%

44 called it, 28 got smoked. A pick to win is a call on who wins, not a bet, and favorites win most games, so this runs higher than a betting record. Ties and games without a call are left out.

Record against the spread, all seasons

No bet leans yet. Every game so far was a Fair Line, and Willie doesn't force it.

73 Fair Lines so far: the line looked about right, so no bet.

Separate records, kept apart

Willie's leans and his pick to win are graded separately, so one can never flatter the other.

Pick to win, 2026 season44-2861%
Leans against the spread, all seasonsNo leans yet

Leans

The main record. A lean passed both of Willie's checks before kickoff. Fair Lines are listed with the rest but never count as wins.

Win rate vs break-even

Willie's running win rate on decided picks (pushes and Fair Lines left out), game day by game day, against the 52.4% a pick has to win to break even at standard pricing. The line starts once 20 picks are decided, because a handful of results says very little.

Not enough decided picks to draw the chart yet. A line through three dots would just be telling stories.

By edge size

Share of decided picks that covered, grouped by how far Willie's number was from the market. The marker shows the win rate needed to break even at standard pricing.

Low
0-0-0n/a
No decided picks in this band yet.
Medium
0-0-0n/a
No decided picks in this band yet.
High
0-0-0n/a
No decided picks in this band yet.

How to read this record

What "against the spread" means
Willie's picks are graded against the spread, not just who won the game. If Willie takes the Bills +3.5 and they lose by 3, that's a win for Willie, because the Bills stayed within the number. If they lose by 4, it's a loss. A record like 0-0-0 means 0 picks covered, 0 didn't, and 0 landed exactly on the line.
Why the win rate matters
Most sportsbooks charge a small fee built into the price, so a bettor needs to win a bit more than half of spread bets at standard pricing just to break even. A win rate below that line means Willie is losing to the market, whatever the headlines say.
What CLV is
CLV stands for closing line value. It compares the line when Willie made his call with the line right before the game started. If Willie took +3.5 and the game closed at +2.5, he got a better number than the final market, and that's positive CLV. Results bounce around game to game. CLV is one of the steadier signs of whether a model is reading the market well.
Why Fair Lines are counted
When Willie's number and the market's are too close to bet, he calls the line fair and says so, along with his pick to win. Fair Lines get receipts and appear here. They are never counted as wins.

Every graded pick

Wins, losses, pushes and Fair Lines, newest first. Fair Lines are listed with the rest and never hidden. Neither are the ones where Willie got smoked.

Showing 25 of 73 picks

Oct 25n/a
Chiefs @ Seahawks
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
3-20
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 25n/a
Rams @ Raiders
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
35-21
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 25n/a
Packers @ Lions
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
17-20
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 25n/a
Broncos @ Cardinals
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
30-16
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 25n/a
Dolphins @ Jets
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
28-25
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 25n/a
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
43-13
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 25n/a
49ers @ Falcons
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
20-29
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 25n/a
Giants @ Texans
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
27-21
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 25n/a
Colts @ Vikings
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
10-16
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 25n/a
Browns @ Titans
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
27-24
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 25n/a
Bengals @ Ravens
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
35-13
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 25n/a
Steelers @ Saints
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
16-10
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 22n/a
Patriots @ Bears
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
24-30
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 19n/a
Commanders @ 49ers
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
17-23
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 18n/a
Cowboys @ Packers
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
13-23
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 18n/a
Chargers @ Chiefs
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
6-22
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 18n/a
Bills @ Raiders
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
33-30
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 18n/a
Cardinals @ Rams
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
18-16
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 18n/a
Bears @ Falcons
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
31-23
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 18n/a
Titans @ Colts
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
26-20
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 18n/a
Steelers @ Buccaneers
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
26-19
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 18n/a
Jets @ Patriots
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
19-26
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 18n/a
Saints @ Giants
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
34-27
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 18n/a
Panthers @ Eagles
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
25-14
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page
Oct 18n/a
Ravens @ Browns
Fair Line
Fair Line
Final
10-13
Close
n/a
CLV
n/a
Game page
Game page

Every graded pick
Date	Matchup	Pick	Edge	Result	Final	Close	CLV	Game page
Oct 25, 2026	Chiefs @ Seahawks	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	3-20	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 25, 2026	Rams @ Raiders	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	35-21	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 25, 2026	Packers @ Lions	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	17-20	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 25, 2026	Broncos @ Cardinals	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	30-16	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 25, 2026	Dolphins @ Jets	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	28-25	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 25, 2026	Buccaneers @ Panthers	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	43-13	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 25, 2026	49ers @ Falcons	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	20-29	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 25, 2026	Giants @ Texans	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	27-21	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 25, 2026	Colts @ Vikings	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	10-16	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 25, 2026	Browns @ Titans	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	27-24	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 25, 2026	Bengals @ Ravens	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	35-13	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 25, 2026	Steelers @ Saints	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	16-10	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 22, 2026	Patriots @ Bears	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	24-30	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 19, 2026	Commanders @ 49ers	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	17-23	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 18, 2026	Cowboys @ Packers	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	13-23	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 18, 2026	Chargers @ Chiefs	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	6-22	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 18, 2026	Bills @ Raiders	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	33-30	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 18, 2026	Cardinals @ Rams	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	18-16	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 18, 2026	Bears @ Falcons	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	31-23	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 18, 2026	Titans @ Colts	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	26-20	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 18, 2026	Steelers @ Buccaneers	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	26-19	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 18, 2026	Jets @ Patriots	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	19-26	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 18, 2026	Saints @ Giants	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	34-27	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 18, 2026	Panthers @ Eagles	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	25-14	n/a	n/a	Game page
Oct 18, 2026	Ravens @ Browns	Fair Line	n/a	Fair Line	10-13	n/a	n/a	Game page

Willie's pick to win

How often the team Willie picked to win actually won, 2026 season. The pick is the one on his last receipt before kickoff. Picking winners is easier than beating the spread (favorites win most NFL games), so this is not the betting record.

44-2861% picked the winner

44 called it, 28 got smoked

Counts every final game Willie called before kickoff, leans and Fair Lines alike. Ties and games with no call are left out.

Week by week

Every week with graded games: Willie's picks to win and his bet leans, game by game.

Willie's Top Picks

Willie's calls on the teams he gives the highest chance to win, up to three a week. Each one is set 2 hours before its game and graded after the final. Favorites win most games, so a high hit rate is normal here and doesn't mean Willie beats the market. This is not a betting record, and it's kept apart from the bet leans.

NFL, 2026 season9 called it, 4 got smokedCalled it 69% of the timeThe market expected about 10 of these 13 to win.Tuesday early list: 6 called it, 3 got smoked. The market expected about 7.This week's Top Picks

Top Picks are the week's clearest favorites in Willie's eyes, so they should win more often than not. The fair test is how they did against the market's chance on the same teams, shown on every pick.